Friday, January 12, 2007

Mortgage lenders going bust

As part of our Housing Bubble readings, we've found the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter:

I set this page up to keep track of mortgage lenders in the US going bust since approximately December 2006, when it seems the first of them started going under. Many observers (including myself) have been anticipating this for some time, as rising home prices (and other financial assets) have collided with the deteriorating consumer balance sheet and low-as-they-can-possibly-go interest rates (heavily reliant on the dole of China and the oil exporters).

It appears what had to give is now finally giving: the latest subprime loans are going delinquent the quickest, and it seems likely that their prior kin will soon follow (and many of these will likely end up in foreclosure). Further, I expect a large swathe of prime loans to go bad (the prime/subprime distinction is quite fuzzy anyway). Originators cannot handle the buybacks, and so when challenged by them are immediately folding. The phenomenon is just getting started. What will the banking industry — generally all or part owners in these enterprises — do? Stay tuned.
Nine so far. Yes, do stay tuned.

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